Risk vs. Benefit and the Ransom Note

Discussion in 'Justice for JonBenet Discussion - Public Forum' started by Learnin, Oct 3, 2009.

  1. Learnin

    Learnin Member

    It is obvious that the ransom note author disguised his or her handwriting. Therefore, it is obvious that the ransom note author acknowledges the risk involved in leaving the ransom note.

    In Radiology we are often faced with the risk/benefit question. In mammography screening, for instance, we must consider if the benefit of possibly finding an early breast cancer on some patients exceeds the risk of exposing many patients to radiation exposure. The American Cancer Society and the RSNA has concurred that the benefit outweighs the risk.

    We humans utilize this benefit/risk equation on a daily basis. Does the benefit of getting to work outweigh the risk of getting in an automobile, for example.

    The ransom note author took a risk by writing that ransom note. The author's attempt at disguising his or her writing speaks loud and clear.

    Therefore, the ransom note author perceived he or she would gain some benefit by writing that note and that benefit far outweighed the risk involved.

    Thus, we must ask ourselvs who would receive a benefit from writing that note. I'll list the most obvious.

    1. The parents. If they were somehow guilty, they had a dead body they had to try and explain.

    2. An acquaintance who wanted to frame the Ramseys.

    3. An acquaintance enemy who wanted revenge on the Ramseys. This is similar to # 2.

    No one else would even remotely receive a benefit which would justify the risk.

    Which of the two, above, gained the most benefit from the ransom note.

    An acquaintance only had to molest and kill the girl, leave no fingerprints or other evidence, and get out. The Ramseys would have been main suspects. Yet, the ransom note might have added more suspicion. Would this benefit outweigh an acquaintance's risk?

    The benefit for a Ramsey authorship is that they could draw suspicion on a host of other suspects, cause confusion, allow them to bring other people into the crime scene, allow police to find the body, etc.etc. Would these benefits outweigh the risk of being identified as the author?

    I think it is obvious who had the most to gain by taking the risk of authoring the ransom note.
  2. madeleine_ws

    madeleine_ws Member

    I agree with everything you said.
    Why on earth would a RANDOM intruder even bother with such a note,NO MATTER what his intention was.
    I was thinking about nr.3 An acquaintance enemy who wanted revenge on the Ramseys. .................I always believed that if IDI then it's obvious it's nr 3. BUT......let's say it's so...........if the RN was just part of a mind game ,then.......why make it so BORING???You would assume we're dealing with someone very smart,right?The note would have been totally different if so IMO.
  3. zoomama

    zoomama Active Member


    You bring up some important points. I ask this question though. Since this wasn't a kidnapping why bother with a RN at all, let alone this lengthy one? The killer/s had already done the deed. Was it purely for misdirection? I think so. What would have happened if no note was found at all? Mrs. Drama Queen of course, had to over do the RN and blame everyone else but them/herself.
  4. DeeDee

    DeeDee Member

    If no RN were produced at all, they could still have reported her missing...but finding her body in the house would have been even more suspicious, pointing to the parents even more assuredly.
  5. Learnin

    Learnin Member

    The note would have been totally different if so IMO.[/QUOTE]

    I would think so, too, Madeleine. I would also think it would be much shorter and to the point.
  6. Learnin

    Learnin Member

    Your point is well taken. I like the term, Drama Queen. The ransom note author sure overkilled did she not? It sounds so much like the Patsy I've read about.
  7. madeleine_ws

    madeleine_ws Member

    Why would an intruder (random or friend) leave his handwriting behind?
    The only persons who COULDN'T use their computer to type it because it would have led LE right back to them were the Ramsey's.John knew that LE would remove all computers in the house ,I am sure;)

    They NEEDED a note but in their situation the only solution was to risk and write it by hand.

    ANYONE else would have used a computer or a typewriter.IMO
  8. zoomama

    zoomama Active Member

    This thought!

    For all the smarts of the writer why didn't she print in caps a very short note. I've heard that is very hard to compare or trace to a single person. It defies logic (or at least mine) why such a lengthy one. Why risk forgetting to disguise letters after so much writing?
  9. Elle

    Elle Member

    Well analyzed Learnin. Without a doubt the finger points to the Ramseys. #1 shouts it out loud and clear.

  10. Elle

    Elle Member

    Because Patsy Ramsey had to do everything in a grand way zoomama, even staging her daughter's death. She just went overboard. Please note the police officer didn't find Patsy in her dressing gown she was made up and well dressed when she opened the door. So was John Ramsey.

    Yes, a short note would have been a wiser way to go. Patsy's mind had to create something more spectacular!
  11. Learnin

    Learnin Member

    It sure fits her character....
  12. Learnin

    Learnin Member

    Panic...maybe.... overdramatization like Elle 1 wrote....
  13. Shadow

    Shadow FFJ Senior Content Moderator

    I talked about the note on another thread…

    To wit, back before 9/11, terrorist and terrorism were not a big concern to the American public. However, mentioning foreign factions (i.e., terrorist) in the "ransom" note would not be a stretch for someone in the defense contractor world. The defense contractor I worked for had meetings at least twice a year to discuss foreign terrorist, domestic terrorist, and domestic and foreign spying. These meetings were conducted by the FBI. So, it would not be “unusual†for someone living in that environment to think that mentioning foreign kidnappers could point investigators away from family or friends and add a little drama.

    If it had been me, I would have been very worried about giving the FBI an excuse to take over the case. But, I was told by my FBI "sources" that as soon as they (the FBI) read the note they discounted a "foreign faction" and believed a family member or close friend or acquaintance wrote the note. That is why they made no big effort to "take over" the case.
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